Some people say, “What will be the next Facebook?”
- Other’s say, “There isn’t going to be one. Commitment to Facebook is extremely high.”
- Some argue that the switching costs for Facebook users will grow over time and that, in part, is why people will be unlikely to switch from Facebook to many, if any, of its competitors en masse in the future.
I disagree though.
- The switching costs for Facebook users are in fact shrinking over time.
- Imagine for a moment a single rock, or perhaps a rock structure like in the picture below, standing in the middle of a powerful river. This rock is Facebook and its users, standing strong, in a rushing river of competitors and scandals.
Over time, Facebook’s competitors and scandals will wear away at Facebook’s base, stealing some of its users and making it more unstable.
- Eventually, the base of this structure will be so worn away by the power of the river rushing by that it will tumble and fall. It will remain largely whole, but being so unstable that it can no longer stand above the water, it will be worn away even faster…until there is nothing left.
This is Facebook’s future.
- It stands strong and whole now, but is already being worn away at the base, and though it will continue to grow, the persistent competition and scandals will make it more compelling for users to switch away from Facebook until eventually, it will fall and lose users more quickly than ever before.
Do you see the switching costs for Facebook growing? Or, do you see them shrinking over time as I do?